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在先前研究的淮河流域洪涝变化基本特征、混饨特征、耗散性等基础上,采用Kolmogorov熵和Lyapunov指数谱分析了淮河流域洪涝变化的可预报时间。研究表明,淮河流域洪涝变化长期不可预报,短期是可以预报的,其可预报时间为4~6年,以4年为较合适。
On the basis of previous study on the basic features of flood changes in the Huaihe River Basin, the characteristics of the chaff mixing and dissipation, the predictable time of the floods in the Huaihe River Basin is analyzed using Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponents. The research shows that the change of flood in the Huaihe River Basin can not be forecasted for a long time, and it can be predicted in the short term. The predictable time is 4 ~ 6 years and 4 years is more suitable.