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为了解常规的儿童出生月报系统出生率的可信性 ,以及对该系统报告质量作出科学的评价 ,从而为发现、分析、解决该系统运行过程中存在的问题提供科学的依据 ,运用捕获 -再捕获方法估算 1999年全县儿童出生率。结果表明 :1999年全县常规的儿童出生月报系统报告的出生数为 8197人 ,出生率为 7 99‰ ,运用捕获 -再捕获方法估算 1999年全县儿童出生数为 890 2人 ,95 %的可信区间为 8398～ 940 6人 ,儿童出生率的 95 %可信区间为 8 19‰～ 9 7‰ ,说明常规的儿童月报系统中存在严重漏报情况 ,建议采取措施解决这一问题 ,以提高常规的儿童出生月报系统工作的运行质量
In order to understand the credibility of the birth rate of the regular child birth monthly report system and to make a scientific evaluation of the system reporting quality so as to provide a scientific basis for discovering, analyzing and solving the problems existing in the operation of the system, Capture method to estimate 1999 birth rate throughout the county. The results showed that in 1999, the number of births reported by the regular child birth monthly system in the county was 8,197 and the birth rate was 7,999 per thousand. The catch-recapture method was used to estimate the number of children born in 1999 to 890 2 and 95% The confidence interval was 8398 ~ 940 6, 95% confidence interval of birth rate was 8 19 ‰ ~ 9 7 ‰, which indicated that there was a serious omission in the routine children’s monthly report system and suggested to take measures to solve this problem Improve the quality of operation of routine child-born monthly reporting systems