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生猪价格跌宕起伏,不仅损害了养猪户的生产积极性,还直接影响到了居民生活。如何评估生猪价格风险,预测生猪价格未来走势,已经得到了生猪养殖户、研究人员和有关部门的广泛关注。笔者根据2003年12月—2011年10月广西省11个生猪调出大县的生猪、玉米月平均价格和月疫情扩散程度等数据,建立面板数据模型,分析评估了生猪价格变化的影响因素,并预测2011年第四季度及2012年前三季度生猪价格变化情况,为生猪养殖户和有关部门提供一定的参考。
The ups and downs of hog prices not only undermined the enthusiasm of pig farmers, but also directly affected the residents’ lives. How to assess the price risk of hogs and predict the future trend of hog prices has received extensive attention from pig farmers, researchers and relevant departments. According to the data of monthly average price of live pigs and maize transferred from 11 hogs in Guangxi from December 2003 to October 2011 and the spread of monthly epidemic situation, the author established a panel data model to analyze and evaluate the influencing factors of hog price changes, And forecast the changes of hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first three quarters of 2012, providing some reference for pig farmers and relevant departments.