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针对航天系统安全性分析与评价中面临的不精确、不完全信息难以处理等问题,在D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论研究的基础上,借鉴贝叶斯网络的建模思路,提出了一种新的风险安全性分析与评价方法——证据网络分析方法。给出了证据网络的定义,研究了证据网络的基本建模思路与框架,包括网络结构构建、网络参数表示、原始数据预处理、网络推理算法、评价结果分析,并总结了该方法的操作流程与步骤。最后,通过某航天系统安全性分析与评价算例验证了证据网络分析方法的可行性与有效性,为安全性管理与决策提供辅助支持。
Aiming at the problems such as inaccuracy in the analysis and evaluation of aerospace system security and the inability to process incomplete information, based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory and using Bayesian network modeling approach, New Risk Security Analysis and Evaluation Method - Evidence Network Analysis Method. The definition of evidence network is given. The basic modeling ideas and framework of evidence network are studied, including the construction of network structure, the representation of network parameters, the preprocessing of original data, the inference algorithm of network, the analysis of evaluation results, and the operation flow of this method With steps. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the evidence network analysis method are verified through a numerical example of the safety analysis and evaluation of a space system, providing supplementary support for safety management and decision-making.