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对科技预测人员而言,谦逊是最佳策略。如果你对此有所怀疑,回想一下三十年前,人们预言“无纸办公”即将到来的时候是多么自信吧。电脑铺天盖地出现在工作场所的各个角落,使我们深信有纸办公即将成为过去。而结果怎样呢?纸业仍然是大产业,而且,纸制品的销量一直呈上升趋势。其中最大的受益者似乎是加拿大,这个世界上办公用纸出口量最大的国家,其出口量在过去的十五年里翻了一番,这十五年正是信息技术“革命”的十五年。
Modesty is the best strategy for tech forecasters. If you have doubts about this, think back to how confident it was thirty years ago when people predicted that “paperless office” was coming. The overwhelming presence of computers in every corner of the workplace has convinced us that paper office is about to become a thing of the past. The result? Paper is still a big industry, and the sales of paper products have been on the rise. One of the biggest beneficiaries appears to be Canada, which exports the largest amount of office paper in the world, doubling its exports in the past 15 years, exactly the same for information technology “revolutions” fifteen years.