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中国已经是东亚最大的初级产品、中间产品和最终资本品市场提供者,但东亚最终消费品市场提供者地位远落后于美国。文章使用面板数据模型重点分析了中国经济增长速度、国内私人消费和政府消费支出等因素对中国东亚市场提供者地位的影响。中国的东亚中间产品和最终资本品市场的提供相对较容易受到这些因素的影响,而中国的东亚初级产品和最终消费品市场提供受到影响的程度相对弱些。而且,国内私人消费支出与政府消费支出对中国的东亚市场提供者地位提升有着不同方向的作用。在中国经济增速和政府消费出现下滑以及私人消费进一步增长的影响下,中国作为东亚最终消费品市场提供者的地位将还会提升,中国作为东亚初级产品和中间产品市场提供者的地位将会下降,中国作为东亚最终资本品市场提供者的地位可能下降或者变化不大。
China is already the largest market provider of primary products, intermediate products and final capital goods in East Asia, but the status of the ultimate consumer market provider in East Asia lags far behind that of the United States. Using panel data model, the article analyzes the impact of China’s economic growth, domestic private consumption and government spending on the status of China’s East Asian market providers. The provision of China’s East Asian intermediates and final capital goods markets is relatively vulnerable to these factors, while China’s East Asian primary and final consumer markets are less affected. Moreover, domestic private consumption expenditure and government consumption expenditure have different directions on the improvement of the status of China’s East Asian market providers. Under the influence of the sluggish economic growth and government consumption in China and the further growth of private consumption, China’s status as a provider of final consumer goods markets in East Asia will also increase. China’s position as a provider of primary and intermediate products in East Asia will decline , China’s status as the provider of the ultimate capital goods market in East Asia may decline or change little.