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本文采用CF滤波法对我国1980年至2008年的非寿险市场承保赔付率进行研究,发现我国非寿险市场存在着承保周期现象,周期长度为4～5年不等。在进一步对我国承保周期形成机制的分析中,本文验证了制度冲击假说和经济周期假说对解释我国承保周期现象的适用性,并得出非理性定价假说和承保力约束假说对我国承保周期现象的解释力不充分的结论。
In this paper, CF filter method is used to study the coverage ratio of non-life insurance market in our country from 1980 to 2008. It is found that there is a underwriting cycle phenomenon in non-life insurance market in our country. The period length varies from 4 to 5 years. In the further analysis of the formation mechanism of underwriting cycle in our country, this paper verifies the applicability of institutional impact hypothesis and economic cycle hypothesis to explain China’s underwriting period phenomenon, and draws the conclusion that irrational pricing hypothesis and underwriting force constraint hypothesis on China’s underwriting period phenomenon Explanatory power is not sufficient conclusion.