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进行红火蚁Solenopsisinvicta适生性分析,找出制约红火蚁种群发展因素及其潜在的地理分布是开展防控、监管工作的重要基础。利用气候模型和种群动态模型对红火蚁在中国可能的分布范围进行分析,并从地温和降雨两个方面探讨了其气候制约因素的地理分布特征。预测结果表明,红火蚁在我国广东、广西、福建、台湾、海南入侵定殖可能性很高,气候条件不能构成制约因素。云贵高原东南部、四川东部以及重庆、湖南、湖北、江西、浙江、安徽、江苏局部地区也存在被红火蚁入侵定殖的风险。两个模型预测相似的红火蚁分布北界为川西高原、陇南、关中、山西南部、河南北部、山东南部一线。当前红火蚁分布还远未达到其分布北界,且其分布范围还不大,仍然可通过执行严格防控、检疫策略以防止红火蚁进一步蔓延。
To analyze the suitability of Solenopsis invicta and find out the factors restricting the development of Sputum ants and its potential geographical distribution are the important bases for prevention and control. Using the climate model and the population dynamics model, the possible distribution range of the red imported fire ant was analyzed in China, and the geography distribution characteristics of the climatic factors were discussed from the aspects of geotemperature and rainfall. The results show that the red imported fire ants in our country Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Taiwan, Hainan, a high probability of invasion and colonization, climatic conditions can not constitute a constraint. Southeastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, eastern Sichuan and parts of Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangsu are also at risk of invasion and colonization by red imported fire ant. The two models predict that the distribution of the red imported fire ants is northwest of the western Sichuan Plateau, Longnan, Guanzhong, southern Shanxi, northern Henan and southern Shandong. At present, the distribution of red imported fire ants is far from reaching the north boundary of their distribution, and the distribution range is not large. Therefore, strict control and quarantine strategies can still be implemented to prevent the further spread of red imported fire ant.