作者对浙江省桐庐农业区的黑线姬鼠的种群数量变化进行了研究。在1985～1995年系统调查的基础上研究了黑线姬鼠的动态模型,该模型包含趋势部分、季节部分和随机波动部分,并对三部分给出估计和预测值。用上述动态模型描述黑线姬鼠种群变化规律,为中长期预测预报提供了新的应用方法。1995年7～12月田间实际结果检验表明,模型的预测与实际结果一致。用该方法建立预测式作中长期种群的预报,是较为精确有效的。 The author studied the population change of Apodemus agrarius in Tonglu agricultural area in Zhejiang Province. Based on the systematic investigation from 1985 to 1995, the dynamic model of Apodemus agrarius was studied. The model includes the trend part, the seasonal part and the random fluctuation part, and gives the estimation and the forecast value for the three parts. Using the above dynamic model to describe the change rule of Apodemus agrarius population, it provides a new application method for long-term prediction. The actual field test from July to December in 1995 shows that the prediction of the model is consistent with the actual result. It is more accurate and effective to use this method to establish the prediction for long-term population forecasting.