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通过对山西地震带历史地震资料(1209年—1979年)的周期图分析,将隐含在随机干扰中的周期部分识别并提取出来,找出其主要周期,发现存在“倍30规律”即30年为其基本周期,其余3个主要周期近似是30年的整数倍.30±5年、80±10年、250±10年、330±15年4个主要周期的综合作用控制了山西地震带的中强震活动.对19世纪以来的6个地震进行了发震时间和震级的内符检验,结果表明内符较好,在此基础上外推预测山西地震带将在1995±2年内发生5.4±0.2(Ms)地震.
Based on the analysis of the periodic map of the historical seismic data (from 1209 to 1979) in Shanxi Seismic Belt, the periodic part implicit in the random disturbance is identified and extracted, and the main period is found out. Year is the basic period and the other three main periods are approximately an integer multiple of 30 years.The combined effect of four major periods of 30 ± 5 years, 80 ± 10 years, 250 ± 10 years and 330 ± 15 years controls the Shanxi seismic belt Of the strong earthquake activity.After the 19th century, six earthquakes occurred within the earthquake time and magnitude of the internal inspection, the results show that the internal character is good, based on this extrapolation Shanxi earthquake will occur in 1995 ± 2 years 5.4 ± 0.2 (Ms) earthquake.