经济学家蔡昉在《国民经济管理》2013年第4期发表文章指出:随着以劳动力短缺和工资持续提高为特征的“刘易斯转折点”的到来,以及以人口抚养比不再降低为表现的“人口红利”的消失,中国经济逐步进入从二元经济发展阶段向新古典增长阶段的转变时期。在这个转变过程中,资本报酬递减现象开始出现,靠大规模的政府主导型投资以保持经济 In an article published in National Economic Management, No. 4, 2013, economist Cai Ying pointed out: With the arrival of the “Lewis turning point” characterized by a shortage of labor and rising wages, and with the population dependency ratio no longer reduced to The disappearance of “demographic dividend” and the gradual transition of China’s economy from the dual economic development stage to the neoclassical growth stage. In the course of this shift, the diminishing returns to capital began to emerge, relying on large-scale government-led investment to maintain the economy