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当前中国经济的热门问题有三个:第一,这几年中国的经济增长速度,按政府讲的,平均起来每年7%、8%,是不是真的?第二,从2002年下半年开始,到2003年上半年、第三季度,中国的经济增长是不是过热?第三呢,也就是现在国际上讨论得沸沸扬扬的,中国的人民币到底应不应该升值?中国这几年经济的增长是不是真的从1978年底中国开始改革起,年均国内生产总值的增长率高达9.3%,24年间,中国的经济翻了3番多。如果把1978年当作一百的话,到2002年底,我们的经济规模就变成八百五十几。这确实是在人类历史上不曾有过的,它大大出乎我们的意料。当时,小平同志提出国民经济20年翻两番,我和绝大多数人一样,认为是不可能达到的。20年翻两番,意味着2002年将是1978年的5.1倍。而实际是8.5倍,比原来的目标将近高出60%!在过去的24年间,平均每年对外贸易的增长速度达到15.2%,增长了30倍。在1978年,我们的所谓贸易依存度,也就是进口加出口占国内生产总值的比例只有9.5%。2002年提高到50%,这在世界所有大国中是最高的。美国只有22%。日本是17%左右。在过去二十几年改革开放的进程中,经常会出现这样一种情况,只要政府一放松
At present, there are three hot issues in China’s economy: First, is the rate of economic growth in China in recent years, according to the government, an average of 7% and 8% per year? Is it true? Second, starting from the second half of 2002, By the third half of 2003, did China’s economic growth not overheat? Thirdly, that is, the current international discussions have undisputedly wondered whether China’s RMB should not rise in value in the first half of 2003. Is China’s economic growth in recent years not? Since the beginning of China’s reform in 1978, the annual average growth rate of gross domestic product has been as high as 9.3%. Over the 24 years, China’s economy has more than tripled. If we regard 1978 as one hundred, by the end of 2002, our economy will have reached 850. This is indeed something that has never happened before in human history, which is far beyond our expectations. At that time, Comrade Xiaoping proposed that the national economy quadruple the 20-year period and, like most people, I think it is impossible to achieve. The quadrupling of 20 years means that in 2002 it will be 5.1 times that of 1978. While the actual figure is 8.5 times that of the previous target of nearly 60%. In the past 24 years, the average annual foreign trade growth rate has reached 15.2%, an increase of 30 times. In 1978, our so-called trade dependence, that is, the ratio of import plus export to GDP, was only 9.5%. It has risen to 50% in 2002, which is the highest among all the major powers in the world. Only 22% of the United States. Japan is about 17%. In the process of reform and opening up over the past two decades, it often happens that as soon as the government relaxes