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巴颜喀拉块体及周边近年强震活动频繁,对块体东部及周边地区进行新的概率地震危险性分析意义重大.本文对巴颜喀拉块体东部重新进行了概率地震危险性分析.使用的新模型和数据主要包括新的大地震发震构造的断层震源模型和时间相依的地震活动性模型.本文的研究表明,与使用潜在震源区模型相比,使用断层震源模型在近断层处的地震危险性较高.使用时间相依的地震活动性模型时,接近大地震复发期望时间的断层的地震危险性较高.巴颜喀拉块体东部2016-2065年地震危险性较高的地区包括磨西断裂、安宁河断裂、哈南-青山湾-稻畦子断裂等.2066-2115年地震危险性较高的地区包括鲜水河断裂炉霍段、折多塘段、安宁河断裂等.如果使用旧的时间独立的概率地震危险性分析模型,未来50年的地震危险性被低估的地区包括磨西断裂、安宁河断裂、哈南-青山湾-稻畦子断裂、德钦-中甸-大具断裂、东昆仑断裂等.未来50年的地震危险性被高估的地区有龙门山断裂、岷山断裂、虎牙断裂、鲜水河断裂炉霍段等.磨西断裂是使用新模型计算的未来50年巴颜喀拉块体东部地震危险性最高的地区.
In recent years, the strong earthquakes are very frequent in the Bayan Kara block and the surrounding area, and it is of great significance to carry out a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the eastern and surrounding areas of the block. In this paper, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is re-conducted in the eastern part of the Bayanhar block. The new models and data used mainly include the fault focal model and the time-dependent seismic activity model of the new major earthquake seismogenic structure.The research in this paper shows that compared with the model of the potential source region, Have a higher seismic risk.The seismicity of the faults close to the expected time of the large earthquake recurrence is higher when using the time-dependent seismicity model.Moreover, the eastern part of the Bayan Har block has a higher seismic risk in 2016-2065 Including the Moxi fault, the Anninghe fault, the Hannan-Qingshanwan-Daduzi fault, etc. The regions with high seismic risk from 2066 to 2115 include the fault section of the Xianshuihe fault, the fault section of the Duoduang, the Anninghe fault, etc. If the old time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model is used, areas with under-estimated seismic risk in the next 50 years include the Moxi fault, the Anninghe fault, the Hannan-Qingshanwan-Daocheng Fault, Deqin-Zhongdian-Diantai fault, East Kunlun fault, etc. Longmenshan fault, Minshan fault, Tiya fault, Xianshuihe fault and so on are the areas whose seismic risk is over-estimated in the next 50 years. The Moxi fault is the area calculated by the new model to have the highest seismic risk in the eastern part of the Bayan Har block in the coming 50 years.