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重拾结构转变引致经济增长论题,收集1978-2015年中国省级面板数据,从新结构经济学视角审视经济结构互动系统,利用动态空间增长效应模型识别“短期直接与间接效应”、“长期直接与间接效应”矩阵,深入探讨了结构与增长作用关系的机制和内涵。结果表明:空间尺度上,经济结构增长效应存在空间系统关联;时间断面上,结构的长、短期效应差异显著,且样本期内“富者愈富”的空间效应趋向仍然存在,需理顺增长与结构的互促关系;时空维度上,动态空间溢出效应分解指出各经济结构变量的表现更为显著的是短期特征,长期稳定可能还未出现,经济分析应注重短期阐释而非仅有长期探讨。影响机制兼具复杂性和动态性,要求结构调整需系统考虑时空协调性。
To regain the theme of economic growth brought by structural change and to collect provincial panel data from 1978 to 2015, to examine the interactive system of economic structure from the perspective of new structural economics, and to identify the short-term direct and indirect effects using the dynamic spatial growth effect model, Long-term direct and indirect effects "matrix, in-depth discussion of the mechanism and content of the relationship between structure and growth. The results show that there are spatial and systematic correlations between the economic growth effects and the spatial structure, and there is significant difference between the long and short term effects on the time scale. In the dimension of space-time, the decomposition of dynamic spillover effect indicates that the performance of all economic structural variables is more significant than the short-term ones. Long-term stability may not yet appear. Economic analysis should focus on short-term interpretation rather than merely Long-term discussion. The impact mechanism is both complex and dynamic, requiring that structural adjustment be systematically considered in terms of temporal and spatial coordination.