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垃圾焚烧发电中国自愿减排(CCER)项目具有投资不可逆性、收益不确定性和投资成长性等特点,传统的折现现金流法(DCF)已不适用于此类项目的投资价值评估。研究充分衡量了由CCER交易价格的不确定性给项目带来的额外收益,并重点考虑了CCER交易价格波动率对期权价值的影响,利用B-S定价模型理论,构建了基于实物期权的垃圾焚烧发电CCER项目投资价值评估模型。通过某垃圾焚烧项目的实际运用,检验模型的有效性和合理性,以期为企业的投资决策提供参考,推动中国自愿减排机制健康有序发展。
Waste Incineration Power Generation China Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) projects are characterized by investment irreversibility, earnings uncertainty and investment growth. Traditional DCFs are no longer suitable for the valuation of such projects. The research fully measures the extra income brought by the uncertainty of CCER transaction price, and emphatically considers the impact of CCER transaction price volatility on the option value. Based on the BS pricing model theory, the paper builds a real option-based waste incineration power generation CCER Project Investment Value Evaluation Model. Through the practical application of a waste incineration project, the validity and rationality of the model are tested to provide a reference for the investment decision-making of enterprises and promote the healthy and orderly development of China’s voluntary emission reduction mechanism.