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气候异常给我国粮食生产带来的影响成为当前社会各界关注的焦点。受全球气候变暖影响,大范围持续性干旱成为农业生产的最严重威胁,特别是近年来南方稻区季节性干旱问题日趋严重,已严重危害到我国经济社会的和谐健康发展。因此,如何适应季节性干旱已成为当前全社会普遍关注的话题,农户作为农业生产的微观决策主体,其适应季节性干旱行为选择如何,其影响因素有哪些?此问题的解决是实现科学减灾的前提和基础。因此,论文利用南方稻区江西省41个县755份农户调查样本数据,从理论与实证上分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素,统计结果表明:面对季节性干旱时,68.6%的农户会采取相应的适应行为,并且补种(苗)、改种其他作物、调整播种和收获日期是农户最优先考虑采用的适应措施,而资金和劳力是农户采取适应行为措施最主要的限制因素。利用Probit回归模型、Poisson回归模型和Tobit回归模型实证分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为措施选择、采用规模和采用强度的影响因素,计量结果表明:社区资本、干旱发生频率、防灾信息的可获性等因素对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有正向影响,而所在村距最近公路远近和所处的地形特征对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有负向影响。因此,需要进一步丰富社区资本、加强农户防灾信息可获性以及加强交通基础设施建设等方面以促进农户采纳适应措施的积极性。
The impact of climate anomalies on China’s grain production has become the focus of attention of all sectors of the community. Affected by global warming, a wide range of persistent drought has become the most serious threat to agricultural production. Especially in recent years, the seasonal drought in the rice growing areas in the south has become increasingly serious, which has seriously endangered the harmonious and healthy economic and social development in our country. Therefore, how to adapt to the seasonal drought has become a topic of widespread concern in the whole society at present. As the main body of micro-decision-making of agricultural production, how can the peasant household adapt to the seasonal drought behavior and what are the influencing factors? The solution to this problem is to realize the scientific disaster reduction Premise and basis. Therefore, based on the survey data of 755 farmer households in 41 counties in the southern rice area of Jiangxi Province, the paper analyzes the adaptive behavior and its influencing factors of seasonal drought farmers from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The statistical results show that in the face of seasonal drought, 68.6% Of farmers will adopt the appropriate adaptive behavior, and replanting (seedling), replanting of other crops, adjusting sowing and harvest date is the highest priority for farmers to adopt adaptation measures, while capital and labor are the most important restrictions for farmers to adopt adaptive behavior measures factor. Probit regression model, Poisson regression model and Tobit regression model were used to empirically analyze the selection of adaptive measures for seasonal drought affected households, and the influencing factors of scale and intensity were used. The results showed that the availability of community capital and drought and the availability of disaster prevention information Sex and other factors have a positive impact on the willingness, scale and intensity of adapting behavior of farmers. However, the distance from the nearest road in the village and the topographical features of the village have a negative impact on the willingness, scale and intensity of adaptability of farmers. Therefore, there is a need to further enrich community capital, enhance the availability of disaster prevention information for farmers and strengthen the construction of transport infrastructure so as to promote the enthusiasm of farmers to adopt adaptation measures.