根据2005-2014三亚市接待游客人数,基于灰色系统理论,构建三亚市旅游客源市场GM(1,1)预测模型。通过对模型进行残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验,预测三亚市未来5年的游客人数。基于模型预测结果,提出在未来的旅游发展中,三亚市需挖掘旅游资源,合理配置;加大旅游人才培养力度,提高旅游服务质量;科学规划,注重环境保护;加大对海外游客吸引力度。 According to the number of tourists in Sanya in 2005-2014, a GM (1,1) forecasting model of tourist market in Sanya is constructed based on gray system theory. Through the model of residual test, correlation test and posterior difference test to predict the number of tourists in Sanya city in the next 5 years. Based on the results of the model prediction, it is proposed that in the future tourism development, Sanya City needs to excavate tourism resources and allocate rationally; intensify training of tourism personnel and improve the quality of tourism services; and make scientific planning and pay attention to environmental protection; and increase attraction to overseas tourists.