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本文运用1986~2009年间辽宁省林业产业总产值及内部第一、二、三产业产值的时间序列统计数据,并基于对数据平稳性和变量协整关系的检验,采用VAR模型和VEC模型分析了辽宁省林业三次产业结构变动对其林业经济增长的动态影响。分析结果表明,林业产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系,当林业三次产业产值分别增长1个百分点,将带动林业总产值分别增长0.69、0.26和0.03个百分点;林业产业结构与林业经济增长之间的误差修正项系数为-0.66,每年实际林业总产值与其长期均衡值偏差得以修正。文章建议通过优化林业产业结构推动林业经济增长,巩固发展第一产业,在长期内加大对第二产业的政策引导,在短期内快速发展第三产业等政策对策。
In this paper, we use the time series statistics of total output value of forestry industry and the output value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in Liaoning province from 1986 to 2009. Based on the test of the data consistency and the cointegration relationship of the variables, the VAR model and the VEC model were used to analyze The Dynamic Impact of the Three Forestry Industry Structure Changes on Its Forestry Economic Growth in Liaoning Province. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between forestry industry structure and economic growth. When the output value of forestry tertiary industry increases by 1% respectively, the total output value of forestry will increase by 0.69, 0.26 and 0.03 percentage points respectively. The forestry industry structure and forestry economic growth The coefficient of error correction coefficient is -0.66, and the deviation between the annual gross output value of forestry and its long-run equilibrium value can be corrected. The paper suggests that policies and measures such as promoting the forestry economic growth by optimizing the industrial structure of forestry, consolidating the development of the primary industry, increasing the guidance to the secondary industry in the long run and rapidly developing the tertiary industry in the short term should be proposed.