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金融与经济有着较强的正相关性,银行机构的经营好坏在某种程度上反映了实体经济的现状,实体经济发展态势也会对银行机构的经营业绩产生重要影响。因此,一国的银行金融机构经营状况能够透视该国宏观经济的现状及未来趋势。美国近期公布的经济数据,时好时坏,信号杂乱,失业率、增长率等指标的时间序列值波动性较高,很难判断美国经济的全貌。比如继今年5月惨淡的非农数据之后,美国6月非农就业人数强劲增加28.7万人,远超市场预期。然而,美国商务部近期公布的数据显示,美国2016年第二季度GDP年化环比初值增速1.2%,创下2010年以来最低年化增长率,又远远不及市场预期(预期为2.5%)。
There is a strong positive correlation between finance and economy. The performance of banking institutions reflects the real economy to a certain extent. The development of real economy also has a significant impact on the operating performance of banking institutions. Therefore, the operating conditions of a country’s banking financial institutions can thoroughly examine the current macroeconomic situation and future trends in the country. The recent volatility in the time series of economic data released by the United States, such as times and wobbles, clutter of signals, unemployment and growth rates, makes it hard to judge the overall picture of the U.S. economy. For example, following the dismal non-farm payrolls data in May this year, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 287,000 in June, far exceeding market expectations. However, according to data released recently by the U.S. Commerce Department, the U.S. GDP in the second quarter of 2016 was 1.2% faster than the initial value of the annualized growth rate, setting the lowest annualized growth rate since 2010 and falling far short of the market expectation of 2.5% .