当前欧洲主权债务危机仍如火如荼,已经蔓延到西班牙等核心国家。但事实上,希腊、西班牙等欧元区国家的主权债务并非全球最高。截至2011年年底,日本中央政府债务占GDP比率已经达到205%。为什么日本迄今为止没有爆发主权债务危机呢?这一情形在未来会发生变化吗?一般认为,日本迄今尚未爆发主权债务危机的原因主要有三:第一,本国投资者持有国债规模占日本国债总规模的比重超过90%。由于本国投资者持有日本国债不承担汇率风险,因此这种市场结构比较稳定。第二,日本国内的储蓄率较高,从而能够持续为财政赤字提供融资。第三,由于日本国内储蓄率一直超过国内投资率,导致日本存在持续的经常账户顺差;而经常账户顺 The current European sovereign debt crisis is still in full swing, has spread to Spain and other core countries. But in fact, Greece, Spain and other euro-zone countries are not the highest in sovereign debt. As of the end of 2011, Japan’s central government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 205%. Why Japan has so far not been a sovereign debt crisis? This situation will change in the future? Generally believed that Japan has so far not yet outbreak of sovereign debt crisis for three main reasons: First, the size of the national debt held by national investors, the total Japanese government debt The proportion of the size of more than 90%. Since domestic investors hold Japanese government bonds do not bear the exchange rate risk, so the market structure is relatively stable. Second, Japan has a high saving rate so that it can continue to finance its budget deficit. Third, as Japan’s internal saving rate has consistently exceeded that of its domestic counterparts, there has been a persistent current account surplus in Japan. However, the current account surplus