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利用统计资料和文献数据,确定粪尿资源的计算参数和各种畜禽粪便折算猪粪当量系数,计算出2000年至2006年的郓城县猪粪当量数。在猪粪当量的基础上,进一步利用GM(1,1)模型,对未来十年的家畜粪尿负荷预警值进行预测。结果表明:2000年至2006年,郓城县家畜粪尿排放量总体上呈上升趋势,在2004年达到最高值464.84万t,警报级别也由Ⅳ级变为污染严重的Ⅴ级水平;未来10年,郓城县家畜粪尿负荷警报级别仍是污染严重的Ⅴ级水平,家畜粪便的污染威胁程度以约1.29%的速度递增,逐年加剧。
Using statistical data and literature data to determine the calculation parameters of excreta resources and various livestock and poultry manure conversion pig manure equivalent coefficient to calculate the number of pig manure equivalent in Tancheng County from 2000 to 2006. On the basis of pig manure equivalence, GM (1,1) model is further used to predict the early warning value of livestock excrement load in the next ten years. The results showed that: from 2000 to 2006, the animal manure excrement in Tancheng County generally showed an upward trend, reaching a peak value of 4.6448 million tons in 2004 and a warning level of Ⅳ to a heavily polluted Grade V level. In the future, 10 In year, the alarm level of livestock excrement load in Yuncheng County was still V level of serious pollution, and the threat of pollution of livestock excrement increased by about 1.29%, increasing year by year.