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目的探讨冠心病个体罹患风险的量化评价方法。方法采用病例对照研究和Logistic回归分析,筛出冠心病的主要危险因素及其关联强度值,以此为基础采用模糊数学理论建立冠心病个体罹患风险的量化函数。结果高血压史、劳累、年龄、腹围、腰臀比是冠心病的主要危险因素,常喝牛奶豆浆为保护因素。根据模糊数学建立的冠心病个体罹患风险量化函数为RD=劳累×0.0218+不常喝牛奶豆浆×0.028 6+高血压史×0.051 5+(年龄≥40岁)×0.232 2+(腹围≥90 cm)×0.543 1+(腰臀比≥0.9)×0.122 7。根据以上函数,每个个体均可得出一个RD值,RD值越大,罹患冠心病的风险也越高。当RD的临界值为0.323 2时,灵敏度为89.6%,特异度为92.9%,约登指数82.5%,ROC曲线下面积为0.969。结论该研究所建立的冠心病个体罹患风险的量化函数准确性较高,快捷方便。
Objective To investigate the quantitative evaluation of the risk of coronary heart disease. Methods The case-control study and Logistic regression analysis were used to screen out the main risk factors of coronary heart disease and their correlation intensity. Based on this, the quantitative function of the risk of coronary heart disease was established by fuzzy mathematics. Results Hypertension history, fatigue, age, abdominal circumference, waist-to-hip ratio were the main risk factors of coronary heart disease. Milk was often used as protection factor. According to the fuzzy mathematics to establish the risk of coronary heart disease individual quantitative function RD = tired × 0.0218 + not drink milk milk × 0.028 6 + history of hypertension × 0.051 5+ (age ≥ 40 years) × 0.232 2+ (abdominal circumference ≥ 90 cm) × 0.543 1+ (waist-to-hip ratio ≥0.9) × 0.122 7. According to the above function, each individual can get a RD value, the greater the RD value, the higher the risk of coronary heart disease. When the critical value of RD was 0.323 2, the sensitivity was 89.6%, the specificity was 92.9%, the Youden index was 82.5% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.969. Conclusion The quantification function of the risk of coronary heart disease established by this study is accurate, fast and convenient.