美国地球物理联合会秋季会议于1988年12月5—9日在旧金山召开,会议按地震学、构造物理学、大气科学、海洋科学、行星科学、大地测量学、地磁和古地磁学、水文学、日地关系、大气与大陆和海洋关系、火山、地化和岩石学等学科分组,每个学科内又安排了许多专题。来自美国和世界各国的代表共向大会提交了4000多篇报告。现将地震学和构造物理学中部分内容作一简要介绍。1.地震空区和地震预报美国对地震预报的强调,不再是给出中短期的确定性(deterministic)预报,而是对某一地区未来时段中发生一定强度的地震的条件概率作出估计。10年前麦卡恩等(McCann etal.)编制了“主要板块边界地震危险性区划 The Fall of the American Geophysical Union conference was held in San Francisco on December 5-9, 1988. The conference was organized in the fields of seismology, tectonics, atmospheric science, marine science, planetary science, geodesy, geomagnetism and paleomagnetism, hydrology , Japan-Japan relations, relations between the atmosphere and the mainland and the oceans, volcanoes, geochemistry and petrology. Many topics have been arranged in each discipline. A total of more than 4,000 reports have been submitted to the General Assembly by representatives from the United States and other countries in the world. Seismology and tectonics now part of the content for a brief introduction. 1. Earthquake Areas and Earthquake Prediction The emphasis on earthquake prediction in the United States no longer gives medium- and short-term deterministic forecasts. Instead, it estimates the conditional probability of a certain intensity of earthquakes in a certain area in the future. Ten years ago, McCann et al. Prepared "Zoning of Seismic Hazard Zones on Major Plates