论文部分内容阅读
考虑到路面性能预测中存在的大量可变性和不确定性,为使得路面性能PSI的预测结果可信且有意义,提出了一种基于分布的路面性能指标PSI预测方法.该方法建立在AASHTO路面性能预测模型基础上,把预测变量处理成具有某种概率分布的随机变量,通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟获得PSI的概率分布.基于路面结构和交通参数建立仿真模型,应用PERFORM程序得到数值计算结果.研究结果表明:交通荷载、表面层材料特性和路面初始性能是影响未来路面性能的最主要因素.在获得路面性能PSI指标的概率分布后,其他统计量如未来路面性能的均值函数和方差函数可以很容易得到.
Considering the large variability and uncertainty in pavement performance prediction, in order to make the prediction of pavement performance PSI credible and meaningful, a distributed pavement performance index PSI prediction method is proposed, which is based on the AASHTO pavement Based on the performance prediction model, the predictive variables are processed into random variables with a certain probability distribution, and the probability distribution of PSI is obtained by Monte Carlo numerical simulation.The simulation model is established based on the pavement structure and traffic parameters, and the numerical results are obtained by using the PERFORM program. The results show that traffic load, surface layer material properties and initial pavement performance are the most important factors affecting future pavement performance.After obtaining the probability distribution of pavement performance PSI index, other statistics such as the mean and variance functions of pavement performance in the future can be It’s easy to get