长江流域自1954年以来,已有40年未发生大洪水,从大气候背景来看,下一次大洪水愈来愈逼近了。去冬今春的一些地球物理信息和水文气象变化态势表明,今年长江出现较大洪水的可能性是存在的。据国家气象局预测,今年夏季(6至8月),长江中下游和江南北部的大部地区,降水偏多1至3成, Since 1954, there have been no major floods in the Yangtze River Basin for 40 years. From the background of the large-scale climate, the next major flood is getting closer and closer. Some of the geophysical information and hydrological and weather changes that have taken place during the winter and spring show that there is a possibility of a larger flood this year in the Yangtze River. According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Bureau, rainfall will be between 1 and 30% more than most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and northern and southern parts of the Yangtze River this summer (June to August)