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目的了解江苏省昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病发病率年代变化趋势。方法 2型糖尿病发病病例来源于针对全市户籍人口的慢性病监测工作,计算粗发病率和年龄标化率。采用年份变化百分比(Annual Percentage Change,APC)来评价糖尿病发病率时间趋势;使用灰色模型预测2型糖尿病未来的发展趋势。结果中标率在总人群(APC=10.73%,95%CI:7.3%~14.16%,P=0.0011)、男性(APC=11.31%,95%CI:7.47%~15.15%,P=0.0016)及女性(APC=10.11%,95%CI:6.98%~13.24%,P=0.0009)中明显上升。根据灰色模型GM(1,1),预测结果显示2015-2018年2型糖尿病的发病率将继续升高。结论昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病发病率呈上升趋势。一方面要改变生活方式减少糖尿病发生,另一方面要加强糖尿病社区综合防治,减少糖尿病疾病负担。
Objective To understand the changing trend of the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2014. Methods The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus originated from the monitoring of chronic diseases of the city’s census register population, and the crude incidence rate and age-standardized rate were calculated. The annual percentage change (APC) was used to evaluate the time trend of the incidence of diabetes. The gray model was used to predict the future development of type 2 diabetes. Results The successful rate was significantly higher in the total population (APC = 10.73%, 95% CI: 7.3% ~ 14.16%, P = 0.0011), male (APC = 11.31%, 95% CI: 7.47% ~ 15.15%, P = 0.0016) (APC = 10.11%, 95% CI: 6.98% ~ 13.24%, P = 0.0009). According to the gray model GM (1,1), the prediction shows that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will continue to rise in 2015-2018. Conclusion The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Kunshan City increased from 2007 to 2014. On the one hand to change the way of life to reduce the incidence of diabetes, on the other hand to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and treatment of diabetic communities, reduce the burden of diabetes disease.