Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability ba

来源 :Science China(Earth Sciences) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:huangyuli
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial(PI) control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni-a-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nio-3.4 SST anomalies for El Nio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the El Nio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for El Nio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for El Nio and La Nia events. This indicated that improvement of the observation network by additional observations in the identified sensitive areas would also be helpful in detecting the signals provided by the precursory disturbance, which may greatly improve the ENSO prediction skill. Most of the ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial (PI) control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni-a-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nio-3.4 SST anomalies f or El Nio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the El Nio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nio-3.4 region, thereby possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to be avoidable large prediction errors for El Nio and generate a better forecast than for El Nio and generate a prediction resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for El Nio and La Nia events. This indicates that improvement of the observation network by additional observations in the ident ified sensitive areas would also be helpful in detecting the signals provided by the precursory disturbance, which may greatly enhance the ENSO prediction skill.
其他文献
要答好现代文阅读题,除了要有必要的基础知识和课内外阅读量的积累外,掌握一些科学有效的方法也十分必要,现介绍一种五步答题法供大家参考。  第一步:飞马观花。即拿到一篇阅读材料后,首先以最快的速度浏览材料的标题、作者、写作时间、文段出处、内容注释和各试题题干,在头脑中对材料的背景、文体、内容范围和考试要求等形成总体印象,从而把整个阅读理解过程放在一个整体氛围中。  第二步:跑马观花。这是在明白了阅读材
目的:利用基因工程技术制备SDF-1与hGM-CSF的融合蛋白(SDF-1γ/rhGM-CSF),研究该融合蛋白对肿瘤患者造血和免疫功能的增强作用。方法:构建表达SDF-1γ/rhGM-CSF融合蛋白的pPI
在当今社会市场经济和社会发展中,广告已经在当今社会中广泛盛行,成为市场营销策略的一部分,是商品和企业形象体现的平台,因此广告的平面设计显得尤为重要.现在平面设计发展
恩施土家民居建筑装饰风格与我国其他地区的民居建筑不同,它以其独特的建筑规模、形式、空间、功能和装饰以及文化内涵构成了自己的存在价值和特色。作为鄂西地域文化表现形式
侗族保存了农耕文明以来的建筑传统,可谓中华本土建筑文化的“活化石”。侗族人的民居房屋大部分均为木质结构,吊脚雕花是侗族民居“干栏”式吊脚楼仅有的装饰。本文通过对吊脚
目的研究c-Met-siRNA体外对人胃腺癌SGC-7901细胞株增殖、凋亡和细胞周期等生物学功能的影响。方法设计合成有效的C-MET mRNA的siRNA,体外通过Lipofectamine2000将合成的siRN
如果把全球化的趋势比作一部影片,你愿意如何评价这个影片?美国耶鲁大学管理学院院Edward Snyder的回答是一颗星。“在现代经济中,人们应该重点关注互联网、跨国公司等相关事
随着居民物质生活水平的不断提高,消费者对智能楼宇的需求也越来越强.经历了技术的创新和材料的变革,越来越多的智能楼宇新做法、新理念应运而生,其体现在人性化、便利化、舒
语文新课程标准指出:语文是一门基础课程、工具课程,通常包括识字、写字、谈话、听话、阅读、写作等方面知识的积累与能力的培养训练,同时还肩负着培养学生美好情感与健全人格等多项任务。在初中语文教学过程中,要满足不同学生的需要,发展健康个性,形成健全人格。在传授语文知识的过程中,结合课文的具体语言环境,具体文章内容,潜移默化地去影响学生的心灵,使他们逐步健全人格。所谓人格,就是人的思想品德、文化底蕴等的综
结合泡沫混凝土的性质和复合墙板的研究现状,分析了泡沫混凝土复合墙板的生产及吊装工艺.