论文部分内容阅读
以水资源的供需关系作为衡量水资源承载力是否超负荷的依据,利用统计资料,分析了长春市水资源现状。以水资源利用量为因变量,采用主成分分析方法在GDP、工业总产值、总人口数、工业需水量和农业需水量等9个与水资源利用量密切相关的指标中筛选出GDP和农业人口2个因子作为自变量,利用多元线性回归分析模型,通过对GDP和农业人口的增长预测了未来10年长春市水资源需求量变化。结果表明,未来10年长春市水资源供需矛盾十分突出,水资源承载力超负荷,水资源无法维持经济和社会的正常发展。根据长春市水资源的形势,从开源、节流和管理等几方面提出了水资源的可持续利用对策。
The water supply and demand as a measure of whether the water resources carrying capacity is overloaded basis, the use of statistical information, analysis of the status of water resources in Changchun City. With the use of water resources as the dependent variable, using principal component analysis (PCA) to select the nine indexes which are closely related to the utilization of water resources, such as GDP, total industrial output, total population, industrial water demand and agricultural water demand, Population 2 factors as independent variables, the use of multiple linear regression analysis model, through the GDP and agricultural population growth forecast the next 10 years Changchun water demand changes. The results show that the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Changchun City in the next 10 years is very prominent, the water resources carrying capacity is overloaded, and the water resources can not sustain the normal economic and social development. According to the situation of water resources in Changchun City, this paper puts forward countermeasures for the sustainable utilization of water resources from aspects of open source, expenditure reduction and management.