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本文在文献梳理和理论分析基础上设定的产品内分工对国际经济周期传导的理论命题及推论,运用1991-2014年中国与东亚9国(地区)间的行业面板数据进行了检验。结论表明:(1)随着资本、技术、劳动、资源密集型行业的垂直专业化程度呈阶梯性下降,它们对国际经济周期的影响亦随之依次呈阶梯性减弱以至为负。(2)强流动要素中间产品贸易对国际经济周期的影响大于弱流动要素中间产品贸易对国际经济周期的影响,而这主要取决于要素中间产品的要素替代弹性和中间产品替代弹性的“两个弹性”大小。
Based on the literature review and theoretical analysis, this paper tests the theoretic propositions and inferences about intra-product division of labor in the conduction of the international economic cycle by using industry panel data from 1991 to 2014 in China and 9 East Asian countries. The conclusions are as follows: (1) As the vertical specialization of capital, technology, labor and resource-intensive industries decreases in a stepwise manner, their effects on the international economic cycle also gradually decline and even become negative. (2) Factors of strong liquidity The impact of trade in intermediate products on the international economic cycle is greater than the impact of the trade in intermediate products with weak liquidity on the international economic cycle, which mainly depends on the factor elasticity of substitution of intermediate products and the elasticity of substitution of intermediate products A flexible "size.