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2013年,中国赖氨酸产能扩张至历史性高位,新增厂家不断涌入,集中度分散,出口量增长有限,中国地区整体供大于求的现象进一步加剧,造成2013年赖氨酸价格跌至历史性的低位。在中国地区养殖市场遭遇低迷的背景下,饲料生产量下降,但由于玉米价格相对于豆粕价格偏低,赖氨酸在饲料中的添加量进一步提高。另外,部分替代产品,如DDGS的广泛应用,也促进赖氨酸的应用增加。根据2013年厂家公布的数据预测,未来1~2年全球赖氨酸产能将达到400万t以上,中国产能将达到220万t左右。而蛋氨酸方面,2013年中国地区蛋氨酸供应量18.8万t,需求量18.4万t。供应方面,国产产量增长,进口量缩减,企业间竞争激烈;需求方面,2013年畜禽养殖行情受“H7N9”事件影响,禽料产量大幅下降,导致蛋氨酸需求增长有限。供应略大于需求导致2013年中国蛋氨酸市场价格逐步进入合理的价格区间。2013年第四季度,受紫光化工环保停产、法国地区蛋氨酸供应紧张、安迪苏进口量减少等事件持续影响,中国地区供应短期货紧支撑价格反弹上涨。根据公开的企业产能扩张计划,预计2014年亚洲将成为新的蛋氨酸主产区,供应压力增大,竞争将变得激烈,整体价格走势不容乐观。
In 2013, the lysine production capacity in China expanded to a historic high. The influx of new manufacturers, the concentration of dispersion and the limited growth of export volume further aggravated the overall oversupply in China, causing the lysine price in 2013 to fall to Historic low. In the context of a downturn in the breeding market in China, feed production declined, but the addition of lysine to feed further increased due to lower corn prices relative to soybean meal prices. In addition, the widespread use of some alternative products, such as DDGS, has also contributed to the increased use of lysine. According to the data published by the manufacturers in 2013, the global lysine production capacity will reach over 4 million tons in the next 1 to 2 years and the production capacity in China will reach about 2.2 million tons. In terms of methionine, methionine supply in China was 188,000 tons in 2013 with a demand of 184,000 tons. On the supply side, the domestic production volume increased, the import volume was reduced and the competition among enterprises was fierce. On the demand side, the poultry breeding market in 2013 was affected by the “H7N9” incident and the output of poultry meat dropped drastically, resulting in the limited growth of methionine demand. Supply slightly more than demand led to the market price of methionine in China entering a reasonable price range gradually in 2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, short-term supply of short-term tight supply rebounded in China due to the continued impact of the shutdown of its chemical environmental protection, the tight supply of methionine in France and the decrease of imports of Adisseo. According to the open plan for capacity expansion of enterprises, it is estimated that in 2014, Asia will become the new major methionine producing area. With increasing pressure on supply, the competition will become fiercer and the overall price trend will not be optimistic.