中国贸易顺差在7月达到今年以来的峰值:高达314.9亿美元的顺差额,创下了自2009年1月以来新高。和往常一样,中国单月高顺差的数据发布引发包括海外在内的一系列言论,诸如中国出口复苏强劲、外需回暖,继而产生诸如人民币应加速升值、出口退税等政策迎来调整窗口等讨论。这些言论自有其道理。毕竟在当下外汇流入压力和通胀压力均未明显减缓的背景下,让人民币适度升值,不失为一个权宜之策。不过,值得注意的一点是,考虑到产品结构和量价对比等因素,当前出口形势尤其是外需 China’s trade surplus reached its peak this year in July: a surplus of US$31.49 billion, setting a new high since January 2009. As usual, China’s single-month high surplus data release triggered a series of remarks including overseas, such as the strong recovery in China’s export recovery and the recovery of external demand, followed by discussions such as the renminbi should accelerate its appreciation, export tax rebates and other policies to usher in the adjustment window. These remarks have their own reasons. After all, under the current circumstances where the pressure of foreign exchange inflows and inflationary pressures have not significantly slowed, letting the renminbi appreciate moderately is an expedient measure. However, it is worth noting that, considering the factors such as product structure and price/price comparison, the current export situation is especially external demand.