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2012年1月天然橡胶市场走势呈单边上行格局,沪胶指数月度涨幅达14.25%,刷新了1年来的单月涨幅;日胶指数月度涨幅高达19.66%。天然橡胶市场表现强劲主要存在四大助推因素:1月初泰国恶劣天气影响割胶,从而提振了胶价;泰国胶农游行逼迫政府讨论出台150亿泰铢的收储计划;美元冲高回落对商品市场形成提振,沪胶与沪铜市场呈现明显的联动效应;国内货币政策放松的预期也对市场起到助推作用。进入2月份,天然橡胶市场上行的推动力将有所弱化:泰国收储政策明朗,对市场的利多效应已基本提前消化;东南亚进入了减产季节周期,天气因素影响减弱;天然橡胶库存压力犹存;国际原油价格难以对天然橡胶价格形成指引。但天然橡胶价格下行空间也有限,预计沪胶市场价格维持在26000～29500元区间内波动的概率较大。
In January 2012, the natural rubber market showed a unilateral upward trend. The monthly increase of Hujiao Index reached 14.25%, setting a single-month gain in 1 year. The daily plastic index rose as high as 19.66%. Strong performance in the natural rubber market, there are four main booster factors: adverse weather in Thailand in early January tapping the rubber, which boosted the price of glue; Thai rubber farmers parade forced the government to discuss the introduction of 15 billion baht purchase and storage plan; US dollar rallied to the commodity Market formation boost, Hujiao and Shanghai copper market showed a clear linkage effect; the expected easing of domestic monetary policy also played a market boost. In February, the upward momentum of the natural rubber market will be weakened: the policy of purchasing and storage in Thailand is clear, the bullish effect on the market has been basically pre-digested, the season of reduction in production has entered into the southeast Asia, and the weather factor has weakened. The pressure on natural rubber stocks still remains ; International crude oil prices difficult to form a guideline for the price of natural rubber. However, natural rubber prices downward space is also limited, it is expected Hujiao market price fluctuations in the range of 26000 ~ 29500 yuan greater probability.