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利用中国西部古地震和历史地震资料建立了特征地震模型并与分档泊松模型结合组成混合地震模型 .研究了青藏高原东南缘的重要地震带鲜水河 小江断裂地区的地震危险性 ,并与 1 990年出版的中国地震区划图结果进行了比较 ,表明在 1 786年曾经发生过 7 级地震的康定地区 (离逝时间为 2 1 3a ,地震复发周期为 32 0a)的发震概率大于后者 ,Ⅷ度区面积同样是前者大于后者 .这说明地震离逝时间与地震复发周期关系对地震危险性计算是有影响的 ,特征地震与混合地震模型的引入解决了泊松模型无记忆性的缺陷 ,使计算的结果更科学、合理 .
Based on the data of ancient earthquakes and historical earthquakes in western China, a characteristic seismic model is established and combined with the sub-file Poisson model to form a mixed seismic model.The seismic risk of the Xishuijiangjiang River fault area in the southeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is studied, The comparison of the results of China’s zoning maps published in 1990 shows that the probability of occurrence of earthquakes in the Kangding area (21 3a after earthquake and 32 0a after earthquakes) in which the M = 7 earthquake occurred in 1978 was greater than that after the earthquake , The area of the Ⅷ degree area is also larger than that of the latter, which shows that the relation between the earthquake extinction time and the recurrence period of the earthquake has an impact on the seismic risk calculation. The introduction of the characteristic earthquake and the mixed seismic model solves the problem of memorylessness The flaw makes the calculation result more scientific and reasonable.