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依据甘肃省62个气象站1960-2005年的地面气候资料,分析农作物生育期(3-10月)内气象要素极值的变化趋势,并用主成分分析方法研究了该变化对农业气象灾害发生趋势的影响.结果表明:与温度相关的气象要素极值表现出了同平均气温类似的显著上升趋势,其中降水相关的气象要素极值变化说明甘肃省降水结构发生了改变,极端性有所减弱;其他相关要素中,最大风速存在明显下降趋势,蒸发量呈下降趋势、日照时数呈上升趋势,但都不够显著.大部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈正相联系,只有很少部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈反相联系.综合分析这些气象极值在甘肃省范围内的变化趋势,揭示出未来甘肃省干旱灾害倾向于加剧,而洪涝灾害趋于减轻.
Based on the ground climatic data of 62 weather stations in Gansu from 1960 to 2005, the change trend of the extreme value of meteorological elements during the growing season (March-October) of the crop was analyzed, and the trend of the occurrence of the agricultural meteorological disasters was analyzed by principal component analysis The results show that the extremes of meteorological elements related to temperature show a significant upward trend similar to the average temperature, and the extreme changes of precipitation related to precipitation indicate that the precipitation has changed in Gansu province and the extremeness has weakened. Among the other relevant factors, the maximum wind speed showed a significant downward trend, the evaporation showed a downward trend and the sunshine hours showed an upward trend, but not significant enough. Most of the changes in meteorological extremes were positively correlated with changes in agrometeorological disasters, with only a few The changes of some meteorological extremes are inversely related to the changes of agrometeorological disasters, and the comprehensive analysis of the changing trend of these meteorological extremes in Gansu Province reveals that in the future, the drought disasters in Gansu Province tend to intensify while the flood disasters tend to be alleviated.