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伴随着世界制造业的转移,世界能源以往的消费格局也被逐渐打破。在这一过程中,中国对铜需求的快速增长,甚至演变为基金左右铜价涨跌的“中国因素”。然而,在这样的情形下,中国铜工业从矿山,到冶炼,再到加工生产的各个环节的投资热情并没有减弱。据发改委2005年10月份的初步调查,全国在建、拟建铜冶炼项目18个,建设总能力205万吨,总投资超过200亿元。而据不完全统计,“十一五”期间,国内改扩建或新上马的铜加工项目的产能达170万吨,总投资超过110亿元。应该讲,相对于国内市场需求和企业自我发展而言,这些项目的上马与扩大投资有其各自的合理性。但是,相对于国家资源状况和行业协调发展而言,现阶段全行业高涨的投资热潮以及由此可能引发的产业布局变动,则应该引起我们的重视和思考。
With the shift of manufacturing in the world, the consumption pattern of the world’s energy industry has also been gradually broken down. In this process, the rapid growth of China’s demand for copper has even evolved into a “China factor” in which the price of copper fluctuates around the fund. However, under such circumstances, the enthusiasm for investment in all aspects of China’s copper industry from mining to smelting to processing and production has not diminished. According to a preliminary survey conducted by the NDRC in October 2005, there are 18 projects under construction in the country and a total of 20.5 million tons of copper smelters will be built with a total investment of more than 20 billion yuan. According to incomplete statistics, during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the capacity of domestic copper expansion projects to be expanded or newly launched will reach 1.7 million tons with a total investment of more than 11 billion yuan. It should be said that compared with the needs of the domestic market and the self-development of enterprises, the launching of these projects and the expansion of investment have their own rationality. However, relative to the state resources and the coordinated development of the industry, the upsurge of investment in the industry at this stage as well as the resulting changes in industrial layout should arouse our attention and reflection.