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针对地震灾害的综合防御问题,提出了城市抗震防灾多道防线的基本原理,建立了城市抗震防灾的防御界壳理论.在此基础上,利用防御界壳群之间的交换率为控制变量,引入Lotka-Volterra方程建立了城市抗震防灾多道防线演化模型,分析了多道防线的竞争互补与协同演化的动态机制.根据序参量的确定原则,选取多道防线系统中序参量,建立了城市抗震防灾多道防线协同演化的测度模型,并将其应用于南通城市地震灾害综合防御系统.结果表明,2005年南通抗震防灾综合防御系统出现了竞争异化特征,系统协调度降低到0.62,之后通过调整各道防线的投入比例,系统协调度恢复了先前水平,并向着更为协调有序方向发展.
Aiming at the comprehensive defense of earthquake disaster, this paper puts forward the basic principle of multi-line defense of urban earthquake disaster prevention and control, and establishes the defensive boundary-shell theory of earthquake-resistant and disaster-prevention in urban area.On this basis, using the exchange rate between shell groups The Lotka-Volterra equation is introduced to establish multi-line defense evolution model of urban earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation, and the dynamic mechanism of competition complementarity and co-evolution of multi-line defense is analyzed. According to the principle of determining order parameters, The measure model of synergistic evolution of multi-line of urban earthquake disaster prevention is established and applied to the comprehensive defense system of Nantong urban earthquake disaster.The results show that in 2005 the comprehensive defense system of Nantong Earthquake Disaster presented competitive alienation features and the coordination degree of the system decreased To 0.62. Afterwards, by adjusting the input ratio of each line of defense, the system coordination restored its previous level and moved toward a more coordinated and orderly direction.