引言在科学技术预测和经济预测中,特尔斐法虽然是一种常见的实用方法,但在本质上是一种十分直观的方法,因而有许多缺点。类比法虽然不象特尔斐法那样直观,但也不甚精确。因为无法断定一些事件一旦引起一种特定的后果,同样一些事件是否会再次引起同一种后果。即使考虑到历史的特殊性和历史条件的局限性,类比法最多也只能是一种可接受的论据,而不是可靠的证明。 INTRODUCTION The Delphi method, although a common and practical method in science and technology forecasting and economic forecasting, is inherently a very intuitive method and therefore has many disadvantages. Analogy, though not as intuitive as Delphi, is less precise. Because it can not be concluded that some incidents have a specific consequence, the same incidents will again cause the same consequences. Even taking into account the particularities of history and the limitations of historical conditions, the analogy can at best be an acceptable argument, not a credible one.