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目的同时分析一个系统的不同危险状态. 方法利用突变理论和模糊理论,以系统中的能量和不可靠度作为两个控制参数,以系统的功能作为状态参数进行分析. 结果与结论开发了一个风险分析的尖点突变模型,使与系统安全状态有关的不同状态,如事故状态,安全状态,未遂事故状态可以在一个模型上同时表示出来并进行评价.“,”Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no-accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.