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作为生物柴油原料的麻疯树在我国已呈现快速发展态势,但对其未来发展潜力尚缺乏实证研究.目的是通过构建麻疯树生产决策模型,模拟分析不同情景下我国西南地区麻疯树发展潜力.研究结果表明:1)在基准方案下,麻疯树种籽产量与生物柴油产量可以达到320万吨和93万吨,但难以达到预期发展目标.2)影响麻疯树发展潜力的最重要因素是技术进步、产出品(麻疯树种籽)与主要投入品(劳动与肥料)价格,其中技术进步是提升未来麻疯树发展潜力的关键,而麻疯树种籽与肥料等价格取决于能源价格.在发展以麻疯树为原料的生物柴油产业发展战略上,近期国家应把加强优良品种的选育与丰产栽培技术作为重点,未来发展需密切关注能源市场的变化.
Jatropha curcas as raw material of biodiesel has shown a rapid development trend in our country, but there is no empirical research on its future development potential.The purpose is to build a model of Jatropha curcas production decision-making to simulate the development of Jatropha curcas in southwest China under different scenarios Potential: The results show that: 1) Jatropha curcas seed production and biodiesel production can reach 3.2 million tons and 930,000 tons under the benchmark plan, but it is difficult to achieve the expected development goals.2) The most important factor influencing the development potential of Jatropha curcas The factors are the price of technological progress, the output of products (Jatropha curcas) and the main inputs (labor and fertilizers), of which the technological advancement is the key to enhancing the future potential of Jatropha curcas and the price of Jatropha curcas seed and fertilizer depends on the energy In the development strategy of biodiesel industry with Jatropha curcas as raw material, in the near future, the state should focus on strengthening the breeding of high quality varieties and high yield cultivation techniques, and pay close attention to the changes in the energy market in the future.