一商业循环这个名辞,我们是指生产量和就业的变动。但是,把季节性的和很长期的运动完全除外,并不是每种周期的或准周期的运动都可以认作商业循环的;例如,由罢工、战争、对外贸易停顿或自然灾害而直接引起的生产量和就业的减少,就不能说是周期的或连续的萧条。这当然不是说,这类事件不会间接影响商业循环,但常常与人们对直接影响预期者有点相反。这是最为重要的事实,就是在商业循环中,几乎 The term business cycle, we mean changes in production and employment. However, excluding all but the most seasonal and long-term movements, not every periodic or quasi-periodic movement can be considered a commercial cycle; for example, a direct result of a strike, a war, a pause in foreign trade or a natural disaster The reduction in production and employment can not be said to be periodic or continuous depression. This does not mean, of course, that such incidents do not indirectly affect the business cycle, but often quite the opposite of people’s influence on expectants directly. This is the most important fact that is almost in the business cycle