自从亚里士多德提出归纳逻辑的理论开始,归纳逻辑的发展已经有两千多年的历史。弗兰西斯·培根(Francis.Bacon)发表《新工具》(The New Organon),归纳逻辑进入了古典时代。休谟提出“归纳法问题”后,归纳逻辑面临种种疑难和阻碍。到逻辑贝叶斯派创立概率逻辑理论,归纳逻辑走出困境,进入了现代的发展。本文试图通过结合地震预测理论的发展来简述归纳逻辑的发展。 Since Aristotle put forward the theory of inductive logic, the development of inductive logic has been more than two thousand years. Francis.Bacon published The New Organon, inducing logic into the classical era. Hume put forward “inductive problem ”, inductive logic is faced with all kinds of difficulties and obstacles. To the logic of Bayesian founded probability logic theory, inductive logic out of the woods, entered the modern development. This paper attempts to outline the development of inductive logic by combining the development of earthquake prediction theory.