有众多的不可预见的因素存在于水电站水库调度过程中,这些位置的因素都会为水库的调度埋下隐患.通过风险决策分析,对造成风险的各种可能误差,选择合适的方法进行分析和评估,最终找出最合适的解决方案。在水库调度中存在的风险主要包括:来水风险、决策放水风险、发电效益风险等,本文主要对来水风险进行研究。 There are many unforeseen factors exist in the reservoir hydropower station scheduling process, the location of these factors will lay the reservoir scheduling risk.Through the risk decision analysis, the risk of all possible errors, choose the appropriate method for analysis and evaluation , Finally find the most suitable solution. The risks in reservoir scheduling mainly include: incoming water risk, risk of decision-making drainage, risk of power generation benefit, etc. This paper mainly studies the incoming water risk.