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本文采用灰色系统理论的“关联度”相关分析模型和“相关系数”模型,基于各种运输方式的总货运周转量、周转量发展速度及分品类货运周转量的实际统计数据,对我国综合运输体系中各运输方式的货运相关关系进行了定量分析。提出了有关我国运输结构特点的一些基本分析结论:我国货运结构体系就总体而言各运输方式间呈现串联联运特征(高关联、正相关)、互相依存和补充的关系在不断加强、尚未形成并联竞争局面、我国综合运输的发展应遵从各方式合理分工、协同发展的基本运输国情。
In this paper, we use the “relevance” correlation analysis model and the “correlation coefficient” model of gray system theory. Based on the actual statistics of the total freight turnover, turnover growth and sub-freight turnover of various modes of transportation, System of freight transport between the various aspects of a quantitative analysis. Put forward some basic analysis conclusions about the characteristics of China’s transport structure: China’s freight transport system as a whole has the characteristics of series transport (high correlation and positive correlation) among all transport modes. The relationship between interdependence and supplement is continuously strengthened and the parallel In the competitive situation, the development of China’s comprehensive transport should follow the basic national conditions of transport that are reasonably divided and coordinated by various modes.