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目的:利用分位数回归模型对近十年来陕西省卫生总费用增长的影响因素进行研究,从而为卫生行政部门配置卫生总费用以及制定卫生政策提供依据。方法:首先根据已往文献研究以及陕西地区实际情况,挑选出2003-2014年间可能影响陕西省卫生总费用的因素,然后利用逐步回归法检验自变量间的共线性,并对解释变量进行筛选,最后利用R软件对陕西省卫生总费用及其影响因素建立分位数回归模型,确定影响卫生总费用的因素。结果:陕西省国内生产总值(GDP)在10%-90%分位点上的系数检验结果均有统计学意义,且所有分位点的回归系数均为正值。结论:国内生产总值是影响陕西省卫生总费用的主要因素,其与卫生总费用的变化呈正相关,国内生产总值的增长促进了陕西省卫生总费用的增长。
OBJECTIVE: To study the influencing factors of the total health expenditure in Shaanxi Province in the recent ten years by quantile regression model, so as to provide the basis for the health administrative departments to allocate the total health expenditure and formulate the health policies. Methods: Firstly, based on the previous literatures and the actual situation in Shaanxi Province, we selected the factors that may affect the total health expenditure in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2014, then used stepwise regression to test the collinearity among the independent variables and screened the explanatory variables Using R software to establish a quantile regression model of the total health expenditure in Shaanxi Province and its influential factors to determine the factors that affect the total cost of health. Results: The coefficient test results of Shaanxi Province with a GDP of 10% -90% were statistically significant, and the regression coefficients of all the sub-sites were all positive. Conclusion: Gross domestic product (GDP) is the main factor affecting the total health expenditure in Shaanxi Province. It is positively related to the change of total health expenditure. The growth of GDP promotes the growth of total health expenditure in Shaanxi Province.