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本文根据弗农的产品生命周期理论探讨我国出口纺织品的变动周期。本文采用1983—2006年的纺织出口数据,从产品生命周期角度,结合龚珀兹(Gompertz)曲线建立时间趋势模型、运用非线性最小二乘法对中国出口纺织品的变动周期进行了估计。实证结果表明:在不考虑其他因素的情况下,我国纺织品出口将出现从高速增长到增速放缓、达到峰值,然后逐步回落的趋势,大约将在2025—2040年步入顶峰。
According to Vernon’s product life cycle theory, this paper explores the changing cycle of China’s textile exports. In this paper, we use the textile export data from 1983 to 2006 to establish the time trend model based on the Gompertz curve from the perspective of product life cycle. The nonlinear least square method is used to estimate the cycle of Chinese textile exports. The empirical results show that: Without considering other factors, China’s textile exports will show a trend of rapid growth from the rapid growth to slow down, peak, and then gradually decline, will peak in 2025-2040.