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文章基于Bayes空间计量视角,分析我国GDP增长与投资、消费、出口等因素之间的关系模式,并将区域集聚效应引入模型.研究结果表明:中国经济增长存在空间相关性,表现为外生冲击引起的空间误差自相关,将空间相关和空间异质性因素同时纳入模型后的分析结果显示:消费增长对GDP增长的拉动作用占主导地位,超过投资和出口影响的总和,这与普通回归模型分析结果有着显著的差异;同时,GDP增长的空间计量模型显现出区域集聚效应差异:西部地区的增长显著低于其它区域,东部和中部地区之间差异并不显著.
Based on Bayesian spatial measurement perspective, this paper analyzes the relationship between GDP growth and investment, consumption, exports and other factors, and brings the regional agglomeration effect into the model.The results show that: China’s economic growth is spatially correlated with exogenous impacts The correlation analysis of space-related and spatial heterogeneity both in the model shows that the driving effect of consumption growth on GDP growth dominates and exceeds the sum of investment and export impact, which is in line with the general regression model At the same time, the spatial econometric model of GDP growth shows the difference of regional agglomeration effect: the growth of the western region is significantly lower than that of other regions, and the difference between the eastern and central regions is not significant.