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以辽宁省本溪市 1955-1996年的肝炎、伤寒逐月发病的数据为根据,利用混沌动力学中“相空间技术”,对流行病过程进行能量谱分析及混沌分析.发现伤寒的流行过程是混沌的,混沌迭代模型是Xt+1=rXtexp{-0.00009287(Xt-33.25352)2);肝炎的流行过程是非混沌的.在模型参数变化范围内,经历了周期状态、混沌状态之间的转换,这表明伤寒的流行过程是复杂的,给出了流行病的“阈值”,以控制它们的流行涨落,求出伤寒的关联分维是3.087
Based on the data of monthly incidence of hepatitis and typhoid fever in 1955-1996 in Benxi City, Liaoning Province, the “phase space technique” in chaotic dynamics was used to analyze the energy spectrum and chaos analysis of the epidemic process. It is found that the epidemic of typhoid fever is chaotic, and the chaotic iterative model is Xt + 1 = rXtexp {-0.00009287 (Xt-33.25352) 2). The prevalence of hepatitis is non-chaotic. Within the range of the model parameters, it has undergone the transition between periodic state and chaotic state, which indicates that the epidemic process of typhoid fever is complicated. The “threshold” of the epidemic disease is given to control their epidemic fluctuation and obtain typhoid fever The associated fractal dimension is 3.087