以罗非鱼越冬鱼塘2003年12月～2004年4月连续监测资料为基础,运用多元线性回归方法,以水温等6项环境因子和放养密度对罗非鱼成活率作回归统计,建立多元回归方程,初步建立罗非鱼越冬成活率的预报模型。结果表明,pH、氨氮浓度、BOD5浓度和放养密度是罗非鱼成活率的显著相关因子。 Based on the continuous monitoring data from December 2003 to April 2004 of tilapia overwintering fish ponds, using multivariate linear regression method, using six environmental factors such as water temperature and stocking density to make regression statistics on the survival rate of tilapia, Regression equation, the initial establishment of tilapia overwintering survival rate prediction model. The results showed that pH, ammonia nitrogen concentration, BOD5 concentration and stocking density were significant correlation factors of survival rate of tilapia.