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以白城市为例,利用农业碳排放计算模型,从农业物质投入、水稻种植、畜牧养殖3个方面入手,对白城市农业碳排放进行了计算,分析其时空变化特征,在此基础之上,基于STIRPAT模型探析区域农业碳排放的影响因素,并提出相应对策。结果表明:1999-2013年,白城市农业碳排放量的时序变化分为3个阶段:低速增长阶段→高速增长阶段→波动阶段,数量由1999年236.554 4万t增加到2013年的444.616 7万t;农业碳排放强度的时序变化总体呈现先升后降的状态,2008年出现最大值6.192 1 t/hm2;2013年,镇赉县总碳排放量最大,达到130.594 1万t;洮南市农业物质投入碳排放量最大,达到56.990 8万t;镇赉县的水稻种植、畜牧养殖碳排放量最大,分别达到69.320 2万t、17.491 1万t;人口数、可比价格人均GDP、农用机械总动力、农业产率比值、农村投资、城市化率和农民人均纯收入是白城市农业碳排放的主要影响因素,影响力指数分别为0.260 5、0.087 4、0.112 6、-0.076 6、0.035 3、0.208 3、0.112 8。为有效实现农业低碳发展,减小碳排放强度,控制碳排放量,白城市必须要在5个方面采取相应策略:(1)完善管理体制,优化政策环境;(2)发展农业低碳技术,调整农业发展结构;(3)发展绿色能源,整合农村能源利用结构;(4)严格保护耕地,优化土地利用格局;(5)统筹兼顾,倡导低碳理念,营造社会氛围。
Taking Baicheng City as an example, this paper used agricultural carbon emission calculation model to calculate agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng City from the aspects of agricultural material input, rice planting and livestock husbandry. Based on the above analysis, STIRPAT model to analyze the influencing factors of regional agricultural carbon emissions and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The results show that from 1999 to 2013, the temporal changes of agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng City are divided into three stages: the low-speed growth stage → the high-speed growth stage → the fluctuation stage, the number increased from 236.554 million tons in 1999 to 444.616 million in 2013 t. The time series of agricultural carbon emission intensity showed an overall increase in first and then decreased, with a maximum of 6.192 1 t / hm2 in 2008. In 2013, the total carbon emission in Zhenlai County reached the maximum of 130.594 million tons. In Taonan City, The largest carbon emission was from material inputs to 56.990 million tons. The highest carbon emissions from rice planting and livestock raising in Zhenlai County reached 69.320 million tons and 17.491 million tons respectively. The population, comparable GDP per capita, and total agricultural machinery power , The ratio of agricultural productivity, rural investment, urbanization rate and per capita net income of farmers are the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Baicheng City. The influence indexes are respectively 0.260 5,0.087 4,0.112 6,0.076 6,0.035 3,0.208 3,0.112 8. In order to effectively achieve low-carbon agriculture development, reduce carbon intensity and control carbon emissions, Baicheng City must take corresponding strategies in five aspects: (1) improve the management system and optimize the policy environment; and (2) develop agricultural low-carbon technologies (3) To develop green energy and integrate rural energy utilization structure; (4) To strictly protect arable land and optimize land use pattern; (5) To take all factors into consideration and advocate low carbon concept to create a social atmosphere.