洪灾风险分析是实施洪水预报预警、洪水保险等非工程措施的前提,对防洪减灾有着重要意义。正确地认识洪灾的概念及洪灾风险分析是所有工作的前提。本文在区分洪水与洪灾概念并与风险概念结合的基础上,指出洪灾是洪水这一外界因素与承灾体这一内部因素相互作用到达不可调和的程度时的“灾”现,而洪灾风险是洪水这一致灾因子与对人类社造成后果两者的函数,并给出了洪灾风险的定量表达式,并进一步给出了洪灾风险分析流程。定量分析洪灾风险是防灾减灾工作的重要前提和依据,但由于自然灾害本身的复杂性和模糊性,完全准确地定量目前还存在着很大困难,还需要更多的努力与探讨来完善这项工作。 Flood risk analysis is the prerequisite for the implementation of non-engineering measures like flood forecasting and flood insurance, which is of great significance to flood control and disaster reduction. Correct understanding of the concept of floods and flood risk analysis is the prerequisite for all work. On the basis of distinguishing the concept of flood and flood and combining with the concept of risk, this paper points out that the flood disaster is a “disaster” when the interaction between external factors such as flood and the internal factors of disaster-bearing body reach an irreconcilable degree. Risk is a function of flood disaster and consequences for human society, and gives a quantitative expression of flood risk, and further gives the flood risk analysis process. Quantitative analysis of flood risk is an important precondition and basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. However, due to the complexity and ambiguity of natural disasters, it is still very difficult to accurately quantify natural disasters. More efforts and discussions are needed to improve this Work